As Madison enjoyed beautiful weather Monday, more like spring than fall, weather watchers in town hall, and up and down the east coast, were keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Sandy. Many models show it turning away from the east coast, but it's still too early to tell what the exact path of the storm will be.
As of Monday night, the National Weather Service said: "Newly-formed Tropical Storm Sandy is slowly intensifying in the Caribbean. The center will be near or over Jamaica on Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Sandy could be near hurricane strength when it approaches Jamaica."
Will it hit the east coast? Kristina Pydynowski, a senior meteorologist with Accuweather says it's still to early to tell, but that it makes sense to keep an eye on her.
Tropical Storm Sandy has formed in the Caribbean, and scenarios for its final destination range from bypassing the East Coast to creating a nightmare for millions of people ...How Sandy tracks Friday and beyond is dependent on several weather factors, which at this time are very complex and creating solutions that range from a tropical nightmare to a miss for the East Coast. The worst case scenario for the East Coast involves Sandy paralleling the coast from Florida to the Carolinas this weekend before being drawn inland into the mid-Atlantic or New England early next week.
Weather Underground also said that it's likely that the storm is likely to get stronger over the next few days:
... the storm will be over warm waters...for the next couple of days so additional strengthening is likely. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and close to the model consensus. This could be conservative...however...as the rapid intensification index shows a significant possibility of rapid strengthening during the next day or so.
At the same time, the Tropical Cyclone and Severe Storms Research Group at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee says that many tropical model tracks show Sandy turning away from the east coast.
Ryan Hanrahan, a meteorologist at NBC CT/WVIT, also said as of Monday night that many models show the storm passing out to sea:
While several computers have shown extreme solutions for New England many models have shown a storm passing harmlessly out to sea. It’s important to note that while Sandy may impact Connecticut in some way it is still days and days away. Numerical weather prediction is quite good these days but it’s not good enough to start pinning down specific solutions 7 to 9 days ahead of time.
You can follow Hanrahan on Twitter as he follows the storm and other weather.
While that plays out, it looks like the next few days will not be quite as nice as Monday.
- Tuesday: A chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 63. North wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
- Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 47. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
- Wednesday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 62. Light and variable wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
- Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
- Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.
- Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50.
- Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 67.
- Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
- Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 68.
- Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49.
- Sunday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 59. Chance of precipitation is 30%.