Should You Stay Or Should You Go?

As hurricane Irene heads our way, Madison’s emergency management officials say it’s time to start figuring out where you will go if the powerful storm stays on its current course.

As of 5 p.m., a hurricane watch had been issued for the East Coast of the United States from the Virginia/North Carolina border northward to Sandy Hook, NJ. The National Weather Service says Madison and the surrounding area could start to feel some sort of impact from Irene as early as Saturday night into Sunday night.

"The exact timing is still uncertain, but heavy rain causing flooding, strong winds, and coastal flooding will likely begin as early as Saturday night," the National Weather Service says.

“There is going to be a choke point, and that’s going to be Durham”

Planning ahead is essential, town emergency management officials say, particularly since evacuation route options through Madison are limited.  “If people wait until Sunday to leave, it could be too late to do so easily,” said John Bowers, the town’s emergency management director.

 “Think Durham Fair, only worse,” added Ed Brunt, the town’s deputy emergency management director.  “There is going to be a choke point and that is going to be Durham.” Other possible evacuation routes, including I-95S to I-91N or I-95N to Route 9N likewise may get clogged with traffic.

Their comments reflect the fact that, when it comes to evacuating the town, there is a simple directive, “drive north.”

The town’s most direct north-south route, Route 79/Durham Road is lined by trees and access to the road from side streets could be blocked by fallen power lines as well. If the storm hits as it is expected to, town and state work crews will be out doing their best to clear the debris, but it could cause delays that could lead to people sitting in their cars at the height of the storm if they don’t plan appropriately.

 The time to plan is now: if you’re going to leave, the time to leave is soon

 So now is the time to figure out where you would go and who you need to call to set it up.

 “Our latest information is that hurricane force winds will hit the town of Madison,” said First Selectman Fillmore McPherson, who spent much of the day conferring with town and state officials about the best way to prepare for the storm.

People in parts of town that are particularly prone to flooding should have already started making plans to leave, he said. He is working with emergency management officials to identify all the potential problem areas, but said they could include the west end of Green Hill Road, Middle Beach, Middle Beach West, portions of Neck Road, and Circle Beach.

 He also said heavy rainfall could flood culverts on Route 1/Boston Post Road near Nathan’s Lane and on Mungertown Road.

 If forecast is on track, winds could be up to 115 to 120 miles per hour

 “Right now it’s slated to hit Stamford. That might sound good but it isn’t,” he said. “It looks like we will at least get Category 1 or Category 2 force winds.” McPherson said it was his understanding, based on the current forecast, that by the time the storm hits Connecticut it could be moving forward at about 30 mph. So, if you add that forward momentum to the predicted sustained winds of about 85 or 90 mph, “you get 115 to 120 miles her hour, that’s easily Category 1 or 2.”

 “Expect that there will be downed trees. Expect that there will be downed power lines. Also, there will be heavy, heavy rain. They expect up to 10 inches of rain in some parts of the state.”

 McPherson noted that a heavy thunderstorm came through Madison Thursday afternoon.

 “Most of Madison has big trees that will come down”

 “All that rain means the tree roots will already be loose. The trees also still have full leaves and so that provides a large cross section for the wind … most of Madison has big trees that will come down.”

 McPherson said he will continue to meet with town emergency management officials to plan for the storm.  Additional meetings were planned for later Thursday and on Friday. If a state of emergency is declared, that would give McPherson the ability to close roads and order evacuations, in consultation with other town officials. If an evacuation is ordered, it likely would not be the whole town, but certain parts of town that are deemed particularly sensitive to damage.

 “But what we’d really prefer is that people make plans to bunk up with a buddy rather than try to ride it out on a cot in the gym,” he said. “It won’t be the Waldorf-Astoria.”

 Emergency shelters may be set up, but it’s not clear how they would be used

 Bowers said the town has not activated an emergency shelter in recent memory.  “We haven’t done that since maybe 35 years ago. And even then, it’s my understanding that one person showed up, took a look and said ‘I’m leaving,’” he said.

 McPherson  said the town might set up emergency shelters at the town gym at town campus off of Duck Hole Road, and up north at the North Madison Congregational Church at the Route 79/80 traffic circle, but that decision has not yet been made. And if the shelters are opened, he said, it’s not clear what point they would be available, or under what circumstances or to whom they would be made available.  He said residents should not plan to ride out the storm, thinking that those shelters will be a back up.

 Make plans, make sure you and your family will be safe

 The goal, he said, is to encourage people to make their own plans to evacuate or make sure they are in a safe place to ride out the storm.

 Selectman Al Goldberg on Thursday implored people not to overestimate their fortitude when it comes to riding out the storm.

 “Please,” he said. “Don’t put our emergency personnel at risk because you didn’t plan. If people need to leave, they should leave. It’s not fair to our police officers and volunteer fire fighters to contact them later and say you changed your mind.” Goldberg said people may think they’ll want to ride out the storm, but the reality of the howling winds, and trees swaying and crashing down can be more frightening than people expect. Then there is the possibility that large swaths of the town will be without power, as in past large storms. Sometimes it can take a week or more to get power back after a large storm. Wells and water supply could be affected as well.

But the biggest hazard, Bowers said, can be flooding and storm surge. “It’s the flooding. People die in flood waters.”

Brunt added that the town’s emergency personnel always want to be in a position where they can help. But he said, with this storm, if it proceeds as it is forecast, it might get to the point where emergency personnel cannot help some who are stranded.