The National Weather Service says there is a "moderate risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the tri-state area Thursday afternoon and evening." The main threat, if the forecast holds, will be from "damaging winds and localized heavy rainfall."
"In addition, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the northern Great Lakes [Wednesday] evening may [affect] northern portions of the lower Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut Thursday morning," the NWS said. "Strong winds and isolated tornadoes are possible with this activity. Right now ... the best chance for this apepars to be north of the [Madison] area."
All in all, it seems like a good day to keep an eye on the forecast if you are going to be out and about.
You can do that by visiting the National Weather Service website, by checking back here at Madison Patch, and by following forecaster Ryan Hanrahan on Twitter. Hanrahan reports on his blog, Way Too Much Weather that Thursday could bring a "sizable severe weather event:"
Ingredients are coming together for a sizable severe weather event on Thursday. A combination of vertical wind shear, instability, and forcing appears sufficient for a major/significant severe weather event. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare (for us) moderate risk.
WTNH's WXEdge weather website is reporting that, based on conditions as of Wednesday evening around 9:30 p.m., the biggest risk of severe weather will come between 4 and 10 p.m. Thursday:
A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move through late in the day. These storms will feature damaging winds and hail in some of the stronger cells. In addition, "supercell" thunderstorms could develop and there an enhanced risk of isolated tornadoes.
The National Weather Service also is cautioning that there may be a "relatively narrow corridor of enhanced tornado risk.""Although pinpointing this corridor is difficult given the likelihood of preceding overnight convection, it appears most probably from parts of New York into southern New England," the National Weather Service says.
The extended forecast from the NWS for the Madison shoreline is as follows:
- Thursday: A slight chance of showers between 10am and 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. South wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
- Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10pm. Some storms could be severe, with hail, damaging winds, and gusty winds. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
- Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 81.
The forecast from the NWS for North Madison, Killingworth and areas north is as follows:
- Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 10am and 1pm. Some storms could be severe, with hail and gusty winds. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. South wind 7 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Thursday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 9pm and 4am. Some storms could be severe, with hail, damaging winds, and gusty winds. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
- Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
- Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 82.
