Community Corner

This Winter: Mild-Mannered? Or Clime And Punishment? (With Poll)

Only the Arctic Oscillation knows for sure ... forecasters say the erratic climate factor could produce "dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter." Parts of New England may be threatened with snow as early as this weekend.

From facilities managers to school administrators, many in New England have been hoping for a mild winter this year. When it comes to planning for school calendars, staffing levels for road crews, and salt and sand supplies, predictions about the weather are critically important.

But the forecasters have spoken. Not only will La Niña influence weather for the second winter in a row, the forecasters are throwing another climate factor into the mix. It's called the Arctic Oscillation and she's a "wild card." This story from the National Oceanic and Atomospheric Administration's National Weather Service explains:

For the second winter in a row, La Niña will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it’s not the only climate factor at play. The ‘wild card’ is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter.

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NOAA expects La Niña, which returned in August, to gradually strengthen and continue through the upcoming winter. It is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and influences weather throughout the world.

 “The evolving La Niña will shape this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “There is a wild card, though. The erratic Arctic Oscillation can generate strong shifts in the climate patterns that could overwhelm or amplify La Niña’s typical impacts.”

Find out what's happening in Madisonwith free, real-time updates from Patch.

The National Weather Service article goes on to say that: "The Arctic Oscillation went strongly negative at times the last two winters, causing outbreaks of cold and snowy conditions in the U.S. such as the “Snowmaggedon” storm of 2009.  Strong Arctic Oscillation episodes typically last a few weeks and are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance."

For you weather geeks out there, here are all the nitty-gritty details from NOAA.

What does the Farmer's Almanac have to say? "For the winter of 2011–12, the Farmers’ Almanac is forecasting “clime and punishment,” a season of unusually cold and stormy weather. For some parts of the country, that means a frigid climate; while for others, it will mean lots of rain and snow." Read more about that here.

As for the short-term forecast, some forecasters say this coming weekend will be sunny. Others, including Accuweather, say parts of New England could get hit by some snow late this week. And so it begins.


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